OPINION: Why Anti-Obasa Lawmakers Failed: Lessons from the 10th National Assembly
By Femi Ajiboye
The political drama that unfolded in the Lagos State House of Assembly, where a faction of lawmakers attempted to unseat Speaker Mudashiru Obasa, shares striking similarities with the leadership struggle in the 10th National Assembly. In both cases, lawmakers who disregarded party structures and internal power dynamics ultimately lost out. The failure of the anti-Obasa lawmakers was not just about legislative politics; it was a classic example of how party loyalty, seniority, and political survival instincts determine leadership selection in Nigeria. To understand why they failed, we must examine how the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) handled leadership selection in the 10th National Assembly and compare it with the crisis in the Lagos Assembly.
When the 10th National Assembly was inaugurated, many ranking lawmakers and principal officers from the 9th Assembly expected to retain leadership positions. However, APC made a deliberate move to sideline them and install a fresh set of leaders more aligned with the party’s agenda. In the Senate, former principal officers like Ahmed Lawan and Orji Uzor Kalu were replaced with Godswill Akpabio, Jibrin Barau, Opeyemi Bamidele, and Ali Ndume. In the House of Representatives, long-serving figures like Ado Doguwa lost out, while new names like Tajudeen Abbas and Benjamin Kalu emerged. The APC’s goal was clear: loyalty and party consensus mattered more than ranking or past leadership experience. The same pattern played out in Lagos, where some lawmakers attempted to impose Mojisola Meranda as Speaker without party approval just as some 9th Assembly leaders assumed their seniority would guarantee them leadership positions.
In Nigerian politics, no lawmaker can emerge as Senate President or Speaker without party backing. In the National Assembly, Akpabio and Abbas succeeded because they had APC’s official endorsement. In Lagos, the lawmakers who backed Mojisola Meranda ignored the influence of the Governance Advisory Council (GAC) the political structure that dictates key leadership decisions in Lagos APC. The APC in Lagos did not endorse Meranda as Speaker, but some lawmakers still went ahead with her selection. The GAC, which has the final say on major political positions in Lagos, was firmly behind Obasa. This miscalculation was a major reason the anti-Obasa faction failed. Just as APC ensured its preferred candidates took charge in Abuja, the Lagos APC leadership ensured Obasa remained Speaker.
Obasa, like Tajudeen Abbas and Akpabio at the national level, had the necessary political connections and experience to withstand opposition. He had built strong alliances within the Lagos APC and the GAC, making it difficult for any opposition to remove him. The anti-Obasa lawmakers assumed they could unseat him through a simple majority, forgetting that legislative leadership battles are often settled outside the Assembly chambers. This is similar to what happened in the Senate, where Ahmed Lawan and Orji Uzor Kalu miscalculated their political weight and lost out.
One of the reasons Akpabio and Abbas won in the 10th National Assembly was because the executive arm of government wanted a cooperative legislature. In Lagos, the GAC wanted stability and continuity in the House of Assembly. By supporting Obasa, the APC leadership ensured legislative executive harmony, making it impossible for Meranda’s faction to succeed.
In the National Assembly, many lawmakers who initially opposed Akpabio and Abbas eventually aligned with the party decision for political survival. In Lagos, once it became clear that the GAC and APC hierarchy were backing Obasa, most lawmakers reluctantly abandoned the anti-Obasa camp and realigned with the party. Those who initially supported Meranda had to choose between party loyalty and political irrelevance. Knowing that fighting against the party structure could affect their future political careers, they quickly reconciled with Obasa. This mirrors how some 9th Assembly leaders, despite being sidelined in the 10th Assembly, were later accommodated in other roles within the APC government.
The failure of the anti-Obasa lawmakers reinforces a key political lesson: defying party structures and leadership decisions often leads to political defeat. Just as APC sidelined powerful lawmakers from the 9th Assembly to install its preferred leaders, the Lagos APC crushed the rebellion against Obasa. Legislative leadership is not just about numbers, it is about party consensus, political alliances, and strategic survival. The events in both the National Assembly and Lagos Assembly show that no lawmaker, no matter how influential, can win a leadership battle without the backing of the party power structure.
The anti-Obasa lawmakers failed because they ignored the same realities that cost many 9th Assembly leaders their positions in the 10th Assembly. The APC in Lagos, just like at the national level, proved that legislative leadership selection is not based on emotions or individual ambitions but on party control, strategic alliances, and political stability. By disregarding the GAC and trying to impose their own Speaker, the anti-Obasa lawmakers made a fatal error one that ultimately ensured Obasa’s return to power. In Nigerian politics, party structures always win. Those who fail to recognize this reality often find themselves on the losing side, just as we have seen in Abuja and Lagos.
Femi Ajiboye
A broadcast journalist
writes from Osogbo,
Osun State.
